Resilience Spine
    Obligation 12 — Mortgage & Household Credit Stress

    The cliff is dated.

    Canada's renewal wall runs through 2026–2027. UK fixed-rate roll-off continues in waves. Australian interest-only resets compound. The US CRE maturity wall is concurrent. Obligation 12 attests the cohort cliff, the payment shock, arrears propagation and consumer-fairness outcomes against the named-regime baseline in each jurisdiction, with AI Assurance OS bindings for affordability and arrears models.

    Sub-controls

    FR-12-01

    Renewal-cliff cohort modelling

    Originated rate × renewal-window cohort grid; payment-shock attribution and cohort migration.

    FR-12-02

    Payment-shock cohorting

    Debt-service-ratio and gross-debt-service-ratio re-projection at current and stressed rates.

    FR-12-03

    Arrears propagation

    Roll-rate matrix, 30 / 60 / 90 dpd cascading, cure-rate decay under stress.

    FR-12-04

    Consumer-Duty / fairness attestation

    FCA Consumer Duty, FCAC Mortgage Code, CFPB UDAAP, ASIC RG 209 — affordability, forbearance, vulnerable customers.

    FR-12-05

    Forbearance & restructuring evidence

    Treatment-strategy logs, outcome tracking, regulator-ready forbearance attestation.

    FR-12-06

    Insured-mortgage and CMHC / CRE-specific overlays

    Insurer exposure, CMHC programme conformance, US CRE maturity-wall sensitivity.

    FR-12-07

    AI-underwriting model attestation

    SR 11-7 / EU AI Act high-risk obligation bindings for affordability and arrears-prediction models.

    FR-12-08

    Capital and provisioning linkage

    IFRS 9 SICR triggers, CECL / IFRS 9 staging, Pillar 2 / OSFI capital impact attribution.

    Anchor sets

    Canada
    OSFI B-20 residential underwriting · CMHC programme rules · FCAC Mortgage Code · Bank of Canada renewal-cliff monitor
    United Kingdom
    FCA MCOB · Consumer Duty · BoE FPC mortgage market measures · PRA SS31/15
    United States
    CFPB ATR/QM · TRID · CRA · OCC heightened standards · FRB stress-testing for CRE maturity wall
    European Union
    EBA GL on loan origination · ESMA & EBA NPL guidance · ECB CRE stress monitor · MCD
    Australia
    APRA APS 220 / 112 / 220-IRB · ASIC RG 209 · CRA Reform residual
    Asia-Pacific
    HKMA mortgage standards · MAS TDSR · BoJ FSR housing-finance section

    Mortgage Renewal Stress (tool)

    Cohort-level stress simulator bound to OB-12.

    Open

    ITGC Pack

    Change, access and BCP for the underwriting stack.

    Open