Stagflation Probability Scenario Tool

    Assess the probability of stagflationary conditions by modeling the interaction between inflation persistence, economic growth, labor market deterioration, energy costs, and monetary policy constraints.

    Macro Inputs

    Inflation Rate
    4.5%
    GDP Growth Rate
    1%
    Unemployment Change
    1.5pp
    Energy Price Change
    25%
    Policy Rate Level
    4.5%

    Scenario Assessment

    0Probability

    Historical Comparison

    2018 Late Cycle

    closest analog

    Policy Dilemma

    47/100

    Elevated

    Consumer Stress

    45/100

    Moderate

    Real Policy Rate

    0%

    restrictive

    Current inputs suggest a 21% probability of stagflationary conditions, most comparable to the 2018 Late Cycle period. The policy dilemma score of 47/100 reflects the tension between inflation control and growth support.

    Sources: Fed, BIS, IMF WEO
    Model: Multi-Factor Scenario
    Property and Energy Stability Series

    Educational only. Not financial advice.